Muva nje, imakethe ye-chip chip ibilokhu ibhekene nokwenyuka kwentengo okubalulekile, okuqhutshwa ngokuhlanganyela yisidingo esiqhumayo samandla ekhompiyutha we-Artificial Intelligence (AI) kanye nokulungiswa kwesakhiwo ochungechungeni lokunikezela.

Amandla Abalulekile Okwenyuka Kwentengo Yamanje Yesitoreji

Amandla abalulekile: Mayelana nokukhuphuka kwamanani, amanani e-DDR5 akhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-100% ngenyanga eyodwa; ukukhuphuka kwentengo yenkontileka ye-Q4 DRAM okulindelekile kukhushulelwe ku-18% -23%, nezintengo ezikhona zezinye izinhlobo zenyuke ngo-25% ngesonto. Ngamaqhinga abakhiqizi, izinkampani eziholayo ezifana ne-Samsung ne-SK Hynix zimise izingcaphuno zenkontileka, zabeka phambili umthamo wokukhiqiza we-HBM (Imemori Yokukhumbula Okuphezulu) kanye ne-DDR5 futhi zivula kuphela ukunikezwa kumakhasimende amakhulu ezinkampani zesikhathi eside. Umshayeli oyinhloko ukwanda kwesidingo samaseva e-AI, asebenzisa umthamo omkhulu we-wafer, njengoba abahlinzeki benkonzo yamafu bevala umthamo eminyakeni embalwa ezayo kusenesikhathi ukuze bakhe ingqalasizinda yamandla ekhompyutha.

Umthelela we-Industrial Chain:

Iziqhwaga zamazwe ngamazwe: I-Samsung kanye ne-SK Hynix babone ukukhula okukhulu emalini engenayo kanye nenzuzo yokusebenza.

Abakhiqizi basekhaya: Izinkampani ezifana ne-Jiangbolong ne-Biwin Storage zithole ukuthuthukiswa okubalulekile kokusebenza, ukusheshisa ukushintshwa kwezobuchwepheshe.

Imakethe yetheminali: Amanye amabhrendi omthengi kagesi abhekana nengcindezi yentengo ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwezindleko zokugcina. 

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Izizathu Eziyinhloko Zokwenyuka Kwamanani

Ukwenyuka okubukhali kwezintengo zama-chip esitoreji kungaqondwa njengendaba evamile "yokungalingani kwesidingo sokuhlinzeka", kodwa kusekelwe uguquko olujulile lwezimboni.

Uhlangothi Lokuhlinzeka: Ukufinyezwa Kwesakhiwo kanye Nokushintsha Kwesu

Abakhiqizi bemishini yoqobo ye-chip yesitoreji (ama-OEM) njenge-Samsung, i-SK Hynix, ne-Micron benza izinguquko zamasu. Bathutha kabusha inani elikhulu lomthamo we-wafer kusuka ku-DRAM yebanga lomthengi elivamile kanye ne-NAND kuya ku-HBM yamajini aphezulu kanye ne-DDR5 ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nesidingo seseva ye-AI. Le ndlela "yokugebenga u-Peter ukuze akhokhele u-Paul" iholele ngokuqondile ekwehleni okukhulu komthamo wama-chips okugcina inhloso evamile, okubangele ukunikezwa kwendawo okuqinile.

I-Demand Side: I-AI Wave Ibangela Isidingo Esiphezulu

Isidingo esiqhumayo yisona sizathu esibalulekile. Iziqhwaga zesevisi yamafu yomhlaba wonke (isb., i-Google, i-Amazon, i-Meta, i-Microsoft) zitshala imali eningi kungqalasizinda ye-AI. Amaseva e-AI anezidingo eziphakeme kakhulu zomkhawulokudonsa wesitoreji kanye nomthamo, okungagcini nje ngokukhuphula amanani entengo e-HBM ne-DDR5 kodwa futhi athatha umthamo wawo wonke womkhakha ngomthamo wawo omkhulu wokuthenga. Ukwengeza, ukunwetshwa kwezicelo ze-AI ukusuka ekuqeqesheni kuye ekuqondeni kuzothuthukisa isidingo se-DRAM.

Ukuziphatha Kwemakethe: Ukuthenga Ukwesaba Kwenyusa Ukuguquguquka

Bebhekene nokulindela "kokushoda kokuhlinzeka," abakhiqizi beseva ephansi kanye nabenzi bemikhiqizo ye-elekthronikhi basebenzise ukuthengwa kokwesaba. Esikhundleni sokuthenga ngekota, bafuna izivumelwano zokuhlinzeka zesikhathi eside zeminyaka engu-2-3, okuqinisa nakakhulu ukungqubuzana kwezidingo zesikhashana esifushane futhi kwenze ukuntengantenga kwentengo kube nzima kakhulu.

Umthelela Ochungechungeni Lwezimboni

Lokhu kukhuphuka kwentengo kulungisa kabusha ukwakheka kanye nemvelo yalo lonke uchungechunge lwemboni yesitoreji.

I-International Storage Giants

Njengabaholi emakethe yabathengisi, izinkampani ezifana ne-Samsung ne-SK Hynix zithole ukukhula okuphezulu kwenzuzo nenzuzo. Ngokusebenzisa izinzuzo zobuchwepheshe, babambe ngokuqinile amandla entengo emikhiqizo esezingeni eliphezulu njenge-HBM.

Amabhizinisi Esitoreji Sasekhaya

Lo mjikelezo unikeza ithuba lomlando elibalulekile kubakhiqizi basekhaya. Ngokuthuthuka kwezobuchwepheshe kanye namasu emakethe aguquguqukayo, bathole ukuthuthukiswa kwe-leapfrog.

Ukushintsha Okusheshisiwe

Phakathi kwamaketanga okuphakela amazwe aqinisiwe, ama-PCIe SSD ebhizinisi lasekhaya kanye neminye imikhiqizo ihlanganiswa ngokushesha namaketanga okuhlinzeka ngamabhizinisi asekhaya ahamba phambili, okusheshisa kakhulu inqubo yokushintshwa kwasekhaya.

I-Terminal Consumer Market

Imikhiqizo yama-elekthronikhi yabathengi enenani eliphezulu lezindleko zokulondoloza, njengama-smartphones aphakathi nendawo ukuya kwephansi, isivele ibhekene nezingcindezi zezindleko. Abakhiqizi bomkhiqizo basenkingeni: ukumunca izindleko ngaphakathi kuzominyanisa inzuzo, kuyilapho ukudlulisela izindleko kubathengi kungase kuthinte umthamo wokuthengisa.

Ikusasa Trend Outlook

Sekukonke, lesi sikhathi sokuchuma okuphezulu emakethe yesitoreji kungenzeka siqhubeke isikhathi esithile.

Isitayela senani

Izibikezelo zesikhungo zibonisa ukuthi ukunyuka kwentengo ye-chip yokugcina kungase kuhlale okungenani kuze kube yi-H1 2026. Ikakhulukazi, amanani e-HBM kanye ne-DDR5 kulindeleke ukuthi abone ukukhuphuka okubukhali kumakota ambalwa alandelayo.

Ukuphindaphinda Kwezobuchwepheshe

Ukuphindwaphindwa kobuchwepheshe bokugcina kuyakhula ngesivinini. Ama-OEM azoqhubeka nokuthuthela kuzinqubo ezithuthuke kakhulu (njengama-node angu-1β/1γ), kuyilapho ubuchwepheshe besizukulwane esilandelayo njenge-HBM4 bufakwe ku-R&D kanye ne-ajenda yokukhiqiza ngobuningi ukuze kuphishekele ukusebenza okuphezulu nenzuzo.

Inqubo Yendawo

Eqhutshwa yiwo womabili amasu e-AI nawezwe lonke, amabhizinisi esitoreji aseShayina azoqhubeka nokutshala imali ku-R&D yobuchwepheshe namandla okukhiqiza. Kulindeleke ukuthi ngo-2027, amabhizinisi esitoreji aseShayina azuze impumelelo enkulu ekwabelweni kwemakethe yomhlaba futhi adlale indima ebaluleke kakhulu ochungechungeni lwezimboni zomhlaba wonke.