Tsis ntev los no, kev lag luam nti cia tau ntsib tus nqi tseem ceeb, uas tau sib koom ua ke los ntawm kev xav tau tawg rau kev txawj ntse (AI) suav lub zog thiab kev hloov kho cov qauv hauv cov khoom siv.

Ntsiab Dynamics ntawm Tam Sim No Cia Chip Nqe Hike

Cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb: Hais txog tus nqi nce, DDR5 tus nqi tau nce ntau dua 100% hauv ib hlis; qhov kev cia siab Q4 DRAM daim ntawv cog lus tus nqi tau nce mus rau 18% -23%, nrog rau cov nqi ntawm qee cov qauv nce 25% hauv ib lub lis piam. Rau cov tswv yim tsim khoom, cov tuam txhab ua lag luam xws li Samsung thiab SK Hynix tau tshem tawm cov lus cog lus, ua kom muaj peev xwm ua ntej rau HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) thiab DDR5 thiab tsuas yog qhib cov khoom rau cov neeg siv khoom lag luam mus sij hawm ntev. Tus neeg tsav tsheb tseem ceeb yog qhov kev xav tau ntawm AI servers, uas siv ntau lub peev xwm wafer, raws li cov chaw muab kev pabcuam huab tau kaw lub peev xwm rau ob peb xyoos tom ntej no ua ntej los tsim kev siv hluav taws xob hauv computer.

Kev lag luam Chain cuam tshuam:

Cov tuam txhab thoob ntiaj teb: Samsung thiab SK Hynix tau pom kev loj hlob ntawm cov nyiaj tau los thiab cov txiaj ntsig kev ua haujlwm.

Cov tuam txhab tsim khoom hauv tsev: Cov tuam txhab xws li Jiangbolong thiab Biwin Storage tau ua tiav qhov kev txhim kho tseem ceeb, ua kom cov thev naus laus zis hloov pauv sai.

Kev ua lag luam Terminal: Qee cov khoom siv hluav taws xob siv hluav taws xob ntsib tus nqi siab vim qhov nce nqi cia. 

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Cov laj thawj tseem ceeb rau Tus Nqi Hike

Qhov nce siab hauv cov nqi cia nti tuaj yeem nkag siab tias yog "kev xav tau qhov tsis txaus ntseeg" zaj dab neeg, tab sis nws tau txhawb nqa los ntawm kev hloov pauv loj heev.

Supply Side: Cov qauv kev cog lus thiab kev ua haujlwm zoo

Cia nti thawj cov khoom lag luam (OEMs) xws li Samsung, SK Hynix, thiab Micron tab tom tab tom hloov pauv tswv yim. Lawv tab tom hloov pauv ntau lub peev xwm ntawm wafer los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom-qib DRAM thiab NAND kom siab dua-npib HBM thiab DDR5 kom tau raws li AI server xav tau. Qhov "kev nyiag Peter kom them Paul" txoj hauv kev tau coj ncaj qha mus rau qhov poob qis hauv lub peev xwm ntawm cov khoom siv dav dav, ua rau cov khoom siv nruj.

Demand Side: AI Wave Triggers Super Demand

Kev xav tawg yog qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb. Cov kev pabcuam huab thoob ntiaj teb (xws li Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft) tau nqis peev ntau hauv AI infrastructure. AI servers muaj cov kev xav tau siab heev rau kev khaws cia bandwidth thiab muaj peev xwm, uas tsis yog tsuas yog ua rau tus nqi ntawm HBM thiab DDR5 tab sis kuj tuav lub peev xwm tag nrho ntawm kev lag luam los ntawm lawv cov khoom ntim loj. Tsis tas li ntawd, kev nthuav dav ntawm AI daim ntawv thov los ntawm kev cob qhia mus rau qhov kev xav yuav ntxiv qhov kev thov rau DRAM.

Kev Ua Lag Luam Tus Cwj Pwm: Panic Yuav Exacerbates Volatility

Tau ntsib nrog kev cia siab ntawm "cov khoom tsis txaus," downstream server manufacturers thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tau txais kev ntshai yuav. Hloov chaw ntawm kev yuav khoom peb lub hlis twg, lawv tab tom nrhiav cov ntawv cog lus mus sij hawm ntev ntawm 2-3 xyoos, uas ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntxiv rau cov kev xav tau ntawm cov khoom tsis sib haum xeeb thiab ua rau cov nqi volatility hnyav dua.

Kev cuam tshuam rau Kev Lag Luam Chain

Qhov kev nce nqi no yog hloov kho cov qauv thiab ecology ntawm tag nrho cov kev lag luam cia khoom.

International Storage Giants

Raws li cov thawj coj hauv lub khw muag khoom, cov tuam txhab xws li Samsung thiab SK Hynix tau ua tiav kev loj hlob ntawm cov nyiaj tau los thiab cov txiaj ntsig. Leveraging thev naus laus zis zoo, lawv tuav tus nqi zog rau cov khoom lag luam siab xws li HBM.

Tsev khaws cia Enterprises

Lub voj voog no nthuav tawm lub sijhawm tseem ceeb hauv keeb kwm rau cov neeg tsim khoom hauv tsev. Los ntawm kev siv thev naus laus zis thiab cov tswv yim ua lag luam hloov pauv, lawv tau ua tiav kev txhim kho leapfrog.

Accelerated Hloov

Raws li nruj nruj thoob ntiaj teb cov saw hlau, kev lag luam hauv tsev-qib PCIe SSDs thiab lwm yam khoom lag luam tau sib koom ua ke sai sai rau hauv cov khoom lag luam ntawm cov tuam txhab lag luam hauv tsev, ua kom cov txheej txheem hloov pauv hauv tsev.

Terminal Consumer Market

Cov khoom siv hluav taws xob siv hluav taws xob uas muaj feem ntau ntawm cov nqi khaws cia, xws li cov smartphones nruab nrab mus rau qis kawg, twb tau ntsib tus nqi siab. Cov khw muag khoom lag luam muaj teeb meem: kev nqus cov nqi sab hauv yuav nyem cov txiaj ntsig, thaum kis tus nqi rau cov neeg siv khoom yuav cuam tshuam rau kev muag khoom.

Yav tom ntej Trend Outlook

Zuag qhia tag nrho, lub sijhawm no ntawm kev vam meej hauv kev lag luam cia khoom zoo li yuav txuas ntxiv rau qee lub sijhawm.

Nqe Trend

Institutional forecasts qhia hais tias qhov chaw cia nti nqi hike yuav kav tsawg kawg yog kom txog rau thaum H1 2026. tshwj xeeb tshaj yog, cov nqi ntawm HBM thiab DDR5 yuav tsum tau pom kev nce nqi nyob rau hauv ob peb lub hlis tom ntej.

Technological Iteration

Lub iteration ntawm cia technology yog accelerating. OEMs yuav txuas ntxiv mus rau cov txheej txheem siab dua (xws li 1β / 1γ nodes), thaum lwm tiam technologies zoo li HBM4 tau muab tso rau hauv R&D thiab cov txheej txheem ntau lawm kom nrhiav kev ua tau zoo dua thiab cov txiaj ntsig.

Txheej txheem Localization

Tsav los ntawm ob qho tib si AI thiab lub teb chaws cov tswv yim, Suav chaw cia khoom lag luam yuav txuas ntxiv mus nqis peev hauv thev naus laus zis R & D thiab muaj peev xwm ntau lawm. Nws cia siab tias los ntawm 2027, Suav chaw cia khoom lag luam yuav ua tiav qhov tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb thiab ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb.