Posachedwa, msika wa chip chip wakhala ukukwera kwambiri pamitengo, motsogozedwa ndi kufunikira kwamphamvu kwaukadaulo wamakompyuta (AI) komanso kusintha kwamapangidwe pamakina othandizira.

Mphamvu Zazikulu Zakukwezeka Kwa Mitengo Yosungirako Panopa

Mphamvu zazikulu: Pankhani yakukwera kwamitengo, mitengo ya DDR5 yakwera kuposa 100% m'mwezi umodzi; Kuwonjezeka kwamitengo ya mgwirizano wa Q4 DRAM kwakwezedwa mpaka 18% -23%, pomwe mitengo yamitundu ina ikukwera 25% pa sabata. Panjira za opanga, makampani otsogola monga Samsung ndi SK Hynix ayimitsa mawu amgwirizano, ndikuyika patsogolo kuchuluka kwa HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) ndi DDR5 ndikungotsegulira makasitomala ogwirizana akanthawi yayitali. Dalaivala wamkulu ndiye kuchuluka kwa kufunikira kwa ma seva a AI, omwe amadya kuchuluka kwa zopindika, popeza opereka ntchito zamtambo amatseka zaka zingapo zikubwerazi kuti apange zomangamanga zamakompyuta.

Industry Chain Impact:

Zimphona zapadziko lonse lapansi: Samsung ndi SK Hynix zawona kukula kwakukulu kwa ndalama komanso phindu logwiritsa ntchito.

Opanga Pakhomo: Makampani ngati Jiangbolong ndi Biwin Storage akwaniritsa bwino magwiridwe antchito, kufulumizitsa m'malo mwaukadaulo.

Msika wama terminal: Mitundu ina yamagetsi ogula imakumana ndi kupsinjika kwamitengo chifukwa chakukwera kwamitengo yosungira. 

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Zifukwa Zazikulu Zokwera Mtengo

Kukwera kwakukulu kwamitengo ya zida zosungirako kumatha kumveka ngati nkhani ya "kusalinganika kofunikira", koma kumathandizidwa ndi kusintha kwakukulu kwa mafakitale.

Supply Side: Structural Contraction and Strategic Shift

Opanga zida zosungira chip (OEMs) monga Samsung, SK Hynix, ndi Micron akusintha mwanzeru. Akusamutsanso kuchuluka kwa mawafa kuchokera pagulu la ogula la DRAM ndi NAND kupita ku HBM ndi DDR5 yapamwamba kwambiri kuti akwaniritse zosowa za seva ya AI. "Kubera Peter kuti alipire Paul" kwadzetsa kutsika kwakukulu kwa tchipisi tosungirako cholinga chambiri, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti malo apezeke.

Demand Side: AI Wave Imayambitsa Kufuna Kwapamwamba

Kufuna kuphulika ndiye chifukwa chachikulu. Zimphona zapadziko lonse lapansi zamtambo (mwachitsanzo, Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft) zikuyika ndalama zambiri kuzinthu za AI. Ma seva a AI ali ndi zofunikira kwambiri pakusungirako bandwidth ndi mphamvu, zomwe sizimangokweza mitengo ya HBM ndi DDR5 komanso zimagwiranso ntchito pamakampani onse kudzera pakugula kwawo kwakukulu. Kuphatikiza apo, kukulitsidwa kwa mapulogalamu a AI kuchokera pakuphunzitsidwa kupita kumalingaliro kudzakulitsa kufunikira kwa DRAM.

Khalidwe Lamsika: Kugula Kwamantha Kumakulitsa Kusakhazikika

Poyang'anizana ndi chiyembekezero cha "kusowa kwa zinthu," opanga ma seva otsika komanso opanga zinthu zamagetsi atengera kugula mwamantha. M'malo mogula kotala, akufunafuna mapangano operekera nthawi yayitali azaka 2-3, zomwe zimakulitsa mikangano yanthawi yochepa yofuna kupeza ndikupangitsa kuti kusinthasintha kwamitengo kukhale kovuta.

Impact pa Industry Chain

Kukwera kwamitengoku kukukonzanso kapangidwe kake ndi chilengedwe chamakampani onse osungira.

International Storage Giants

Monga atsogoleri pamsika wa ogulitsa, makampani ngati Samsung ndi SK Hynix apeza kukula kwakukulu kwa ndalama ndi phindu. Potengera zabwino zaukadaulo, amakhala ndi mphamvu zamitengo pazinthu zotsika kwambiri monga HBM.

Makampani Osungirako Zanyumba

Kuzungulira uku kumapereka mwayi wofunikira kwambiri kwa opanga nyumba. Kupyolera mukupita patsogolo kwaukadaulo ndi njira zosinthika zamsika, apeza chitukuko cha leapfrog.

Kusintha Kwachangu

Pakati pa maunyolo okhazikika padziko lonse lapansi, ma PCIe SSD amakampani apanyumba ndi zinthu zina zikuphatikizidwa mwachangu pamabizinesi otsogola apanyumba, zomwe zikufulumizitsa njira zolowa m'malo.

Terminal Consumer Market

Zogulitsa zamagetsi zamagetsi zomwe zimakhala ndi ndalama zambiri zosungirako, monga mafoni apakati mpaka otsika, akukumana kale ndi zovuta zamtengo wapatali. Opanga ma brand ali pamavuto: kutengera ndalama mkati kudzafinya phindu, pomwe kupereka ndalama kwa ogula kungakhudze kuchuluka kwa malonda.

Future Trend Outlook

Ponseponse, nthawi iyi yotukuka kwambiri pamsika wosungirako ikuyenera kupitilira kwakanthawi.

Mtengo Trend

Zoneneratu zamagulu zikuwonetsa kuti kukwera kwamtengo wamtengo wosungirako kumatha kukhala osachepera mpaka H1 2026. Makamaka, mitengo ya HBM ndi DDR5 ikuyembekezeka kuwona kuwonjezeka kwakukulu m'magawo angapo otsatirawa.

Tekinoloje Iteration

Kubwereza kwaukadaulo wakusungirako kukukulirakulira. Ma OEM apitiliza kusamukira kunjira zotsogola (monga 1β/1γ node), pomwe matekinoloje am'badwo wotsatira monga HBM4 ayikidwa pa R&D ndi ndandanda yopanga zinthu zambiri kuti akwaniritse magwiridwe antchito apamwamba komanso phindu.

Njira yakumaloko

Motsogozedwa ndi njira zonse za AI ndi dziko, mabizinesi aku China osungira apitilizabe kuyika ndalama mu R&D yaukadaulo komanso kuthekera kopanga. Zikuyembekezeka kuti pofika chaka cha 2027, mabizinesi aku China osungira zinthu adzapambana kwambiri pamsika wapadziko lonse lapansi ndikutenga gawo lofunikira kwambiri pamakampani apadziko lonse lapansi.