Nguva pfupi yadarika, musika wekuchengetera chip wanga uchiona kukwira kwemutengo wakakosha, uchifambiswa pamwe chete nekuputika kuri kuda kwehunyanzvi hwekugadzira (AI) komputa simba uye zvimiro zvekugadzirisa mucheni yekugovera.

Makiyi Dynamics eIyezvino Kuchengeta Chip Mutengo Kukwira

Key dynamics: Panyaya yekuwedzera kwemitengo, DDR5 mitengo yakakwira pamusoro pe100% mumwedzi mumwe chete; iyo inotarisirwa Q4 DRAM mutengo wekontrakiti yekuwedzera yakasimudzwa kusvika 18% -23%, nemitengo yemamwe mamodheru ichikwira 25% muvhiki. Pamazano evagadziri, makambani anotungamira akadai seSamsung uye SK Hynix akamisa makotesheni ekondirakiti, achiisa pamberi pekugadzirwa kweHBM (High Bandwidth Memory) uye DDR5 uye kungovhura chete kune vatengi venguva refu vemubatanidzwa. Mutyairi wepakati ndiko kuwedzera kuri kudiwa kwemasevha eAI, ayo anoshandisa huwandu hukuru hwewafer simba, sevanopa masevhisi egore vanokiya mukukwanisa kwemakore mashoma anotevera kumberi kuvaka komputa magetsi emagetsi.

Indasitiri Chain Impact:

Makuru epasi rese: Samsung uye SK Hynix vaona kukura kwakanyanya mumari uye purofiti yekushandisa.

Vagadziri vepamba: Makambani akaita seJiangbolong neBiwin Storage akawana kuvandudzwa kwekuita, achimhanyisa kutsiva tekinoroji.

Terminal musika: Mamwe mabhureki emagetsi evatengi anotarisana nemitengo nekuda kwekukwira kwemitengo yekuchengetedza. 

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Zvikonzero Zvikuru Zvekukwira Kwemitengo

Kukwira kwakanyanya kwemitengo yekuchengetera chip kunogona kunzwisiswa seyakajairwa "supply-demand imbalance" nyaya, asi inotsigirwa neyakadzama shanduko yemaindasitiri.

Supply Side: Structural Contraction uye Strategic Shift

Chengetedza chip yevagadziri vemidziyo yepakutanga (OEMs) senge Samsung, SK Hynix, uye Micron vari kuita shanduko yehungwaru. Vari kudzoreredza huwandu hukuru hwewafer huwandu kubva kune yechinyakare mutengi-giredhi DRAM neNAND kune yepamusoro-muganho HBM uye DDR5 kusangana neAI server inoda. Iyi "kubira Peter kubhadhara Paul" nzira yatungamira mukudonha kwakanyanya mukugona kwese-chinangwa chekuchengetedza machipisi, zvichikonzera kusimba kwenzvimbo.

Demand Side: AI Wave Triggers Super Demand

Kuputika kudiwa ndicho chikonzero chakakosha. Global Cloud service hofori (semuenzaniso, Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft) vari kuisa mari yakawanda muAI zvivakwa. Masevha eAI ane zvakanyanyisa zvinodikanwa zvekuchengetera bandwidth uye huwandu, izvo zvisingangokwidzi mitengo yeHBM neDDR5 asi zvakare inotora huwandu hwese hweindasitiri kuburikidza nehukuru hwavo hwekutenga. Pamusoro pezvo, kuwedzera kweAI application kubva pakudzidziswa kuenda kune inference kuchawedzera kudiwa kweDRAM.

Musika Behaviour: Kutya Kutenga Kunowedzera Kusagadzikana

Takatarisana netarisiro ye "kushomeka kwezvinhu," vagadziri vepasi sevagadziri uye vagadziri vezvigadzirwa zvemagetsi vatora kuvhunduka kutenga. Panzvimbo pekutenga kwekota, ivo vari kutsvaga zvibvumirano zvenguva refu zvemakore 2-3, izvo zvinowedzera kuwedzera-yenguva pfupi-yekuda-kukakavadzana uye kuita kuti kuderera kwemutengo kuwedzere.

Impact paIndasitiri Chain

Uku kukwira kwemutengo kuri kugadzirisa chimiro uye ecology yeiyo yese yekuchengetedza indasitiri cheni.

International Storage Giants

Sevatungamiriri mumusika wevatengesi, makambani akaita seSamsung neSK Hynix akawana kukura kwakanyanya mumari uye purofiti. Kushandisa zvakanakira tekinoroji, vanobatisisa simba remitengo yezvinhu zvepamusoro-soro senge HBM.

Dzimba Storage Enterprises

Kutenderera uku kunopa yakakosha nhoroondo mukana kune vagadziri vepamba. Kuburikidza nebudiriro yetekinoroji uye nzira dzinochinjika dzemusika, vakawana budiriro yereapfrog.

Accelerated Substitution

Pakati pekusimbiswa kwecheni dzekugovera dzepasirese, bhizinesi-giredhi PCIe SSD uye zvimwe zvigadzirwa zviri kukurumidza kubatanidzwa mumaketani ekupa ekutungamira mabhizinesi epamba, zvakanyanya kumhanyisa maitiro ekutsiva epamba.

Terminal Consumer Market

Zvigadzirwa zvemagetsi zvevatengi zvine chikamu chepamusoro chemitengo yekuchengetedza, senge pakati-kusvika-yakaderera-yekupedzisira-mafoni, atotarisana nemitengo yekumanikidza. Vagadziri veBrand vari mudambudziko: kutora mari mukati kunodzvanya purofiti, nepo kupfuudza mutengo kune vatengi kunogona kukanganisa huwandu hwekutengesa.

Ramangwana Trend Outlook

Pakazara, iyi nguva yekubudirira kwepamusoro mumusika wekuchengetedza ingangoenderera kwenguva yakati.

Price Trend

Kufanotaura kweInstitutional kunoratidza kuti kukwira kwechipo chekuchengetedza mutengo kunogona kugara zvishoma kusvika H1 2026. Kunyanya, mitengo yeHBM neDDR5 inotarisirwa kuona kuwedzera kwakanyanya muzvikamu zvishoma zvinotevera.

Tekinoroji Iteration

Iyo iteration yetekinoroji yekuchengetedza iri kukurumidza. MaOEM acharamba achitamira kune mamwe maitiro epamberi (senge 1β/1γ node), nepo chizvarwa chinotevera matekinoroji seHBM4 akaiswa paR&D uye hurongwa hwekugadzira huwandu hwekutevera kuita kwepamusoro uye purofiti.

Localization Process

Inotungamirwa neese AI uye hurongwa hwenyika, maChinese ekuchengetedza mabhizinesi acharamba achidyara mutekinoroji R&D uye kugona kugadzira. Zvinotarisirwa kuti panosvika 2027, maChinese mabhizinesi ekuchengetera achawana budiriro yakakosha mukugovaniswa kwemusika wepasi rose uye kuita basa rakakosha mumaindasitiri epasi rose.