Kutshanje, imarike yetshiphu yogcino ibijongene nokunyuka kwexabiso okubalulekileyo, okuqhutywa ngokudibeneyo sisiqhushumbisi semfuno yobukrelekrele bokwenziwa (AI) kwikhompyuter kunye nohlengahlengiso lwesakhiwo kwisixokelelwano sobonelelo.

I-Dynamics engundoqo yokuNyuswa kweXabiso langoku lokuGcinwa kweChip

Iimpawu eziphambili: Ngokumalunga nokunyuka kwamaxabiso, amaxabiso e-DDR5 anyuke ngaphezu kwe-100% kwinyanga enye; kulindeleke ukuba ixabiso lekhontrakthi ye-Q4 ye-DRAM inyuswe kwi-18% -23%, kunye namaxabiso amabala eemodeli ezithile ezinyuka nge-25% ngeveki. Kwizicwangciso zomenzi, iinkampani ezikhokelayo ezifana ne-Samsung kunye ne-SK Hynix ziye zanqumamisa iikowuteshini zekhontrakthi, zibeka phambili umthamo wemveliso ye-HBM (iMemori yoMmandla oPhezulu) kunye ne-DDR5 kunye nokuvula unikezelo lwabathengi bexesha elide bentsebenziswano. Umqhubi ongundoqo kukwanda kwemfuno yeeseva ze-AI, ezidla isixa esikhulu somthamo we-wafer, njengoko ababoneleli benkonzo yelifu bevala isikhundla kwiminyaka embalwa ezayo kwangethuba ukuze bakhe iziseko zombane zekhompyutha.

Impembelelo yeChayini yeShishini:

Izigebenga zamazwe ngamazwe: I-Samsung kunye ne-SK Hynix zibone ukukhula okubonakalayo kwingeniso kunye nenzuzo yokusebenza.

Abavelisi basekhaya: Iinkampani ezifana ne-Jiangbolong kunye ne-Biwin Storage ziphumelele ukuphuculwa komsebenzi obalulekileyo, ukukhawulezisa ukutshintshwa kobuchwepheshe.

Imarike yetheminali: Ezinye iimveliso zombane zabathengi zijongana noxinzelelo lwamaxabiso ngenxa yokunyuka kweendleko zokugcina. 

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Izizathu ezingundoqo zokunyuka kweXabiso

Ukunyuka okubukhali kwamaxabiso e-chip yokugcina kunokuqondwa njengebali "lokungalingani kwemfuno yokubonelela", kodwa ixhaswa yinguqu enzulu yezoshishino.

Icala loNikezo: Ukutsalwa kwesakhiwo kunye neShift yeQhinga

Abavelisi bezixhobo zoqobo zetshiphu (ii-OEMs) ezifana ne-Samsung, i-SK Hynix, kunye ne-Micron ziphantsi kwenguqu yeqhinga. Bathumela kwakhona isixa esikhulu somthamo we-wafer ukusuka kwibakala labathengi bemveli ye-DRAM kunye ne-NAND ukuya kumda ophakamileyo we-HBM kunye ne-DDR5 ukuhlangabezana nemfuno yeseva ye-AI. Le "ukuphanga uPetros ukuba ahlawule uPawulos" indlela iye yakhokelela ngokuthe ngqo ekwehleni kabukhali kwisakhono sokugcina iitshiphusi zenjongo jikelele, okubangela unikezelo lwamabala aqinileyo.

Icala leMbango: I-AI Wave ibangela iMfuno ePhezulu

Imfuno eqhumayo sesona sizathu sibalulekileyo. Iingxilimbela zenkonzo yamafu ehlabathi (umzekelo, iGoogle, iAmazon, iMeta, iMicrosoft) zityala imali eninzi kwiziseko zophuhliso ze-AI. Iiseva ze-AI zineemfuno eziphezulu kakhulu zokugcina i-bandwidth kunye nomthamo, ezingaqhubeli nje amaxabiso e-HBM kunye ne-DDR5 kodwa zikwathatha umthamo weshishini ngokubanzi ngomthamo wazo omkhulu wokuthenga. Ukongeza, ukwandiswa kwezicelo ze-AI ukusuka kuqeqesho ukuya kwingqikelelo kuya kwandisa imfuno ye-DRAM.

Ukuziphatha kweMarike: Ukuthengwa kwe-Panic kwandisa ukuguquguquka

Ngokujongana nolindelo "lokunqongophala kokubonelela," abavelisi beeseva ezisezantsi kunye nabenzi bemveliso ye-elektroniki baye bamkela uloyiko lokuthenga. Esikhundleni sokuthengwa kwekota, bafuna izivumelwano zokubonelela ixesha elide le-2-3 iminyaka, eqhubela phambili ukuqinisa iingxabano zexesha elifutshane lokubonelela kunye nokwenza ukuguquguquka kwexabiso kubi kakhulu.

Impembelelo kuShishino lweShishini

Oku kunyuka kwexabiso kubunjwa ngokutsha ubume kunye ne-ecology yalo lonke ikhonkco loshishino lokugcina.

Izigebenga zoGcino lwamazwe ngamazwe

Njengeenkokeli kwimarike yomthengisi, iinkampani ezifana ne-Samsung kunye ne-SK Hynix ziphumelele ukukhula okuphezulu kwingeniso kunye nenzuzo. Ukufumana inzuzo yetekhnoloji, babambe ngokuqinileyo amandla amaxabiso eemveliso eziphezulu ezifana ne-HBM.

Amashishini oGcino lwaseKhaya

Lo mjikelo ubonisa ithuba elibalulekileyo lembali kubavelisi basekhaya. Ngempumelelo yetekhnoloji kunye nezicwangciso zentengiso eziguquguqukayo, baye bazuza uphuhliso lwe-leapfrog.

Ukutshintsha okukhawulezileyo

Phakathi kokuqiniswa kwamatyathanga obonelelo lwamazwe ngamazwe, ii-PCIe SSDs zeshishini lasekhaya kunye nezinye iimveliso zidityaniswa ngokukhawuleza kumatyathanga obonelelo lwamashishini aphambili asekhaya, okukhawulezisa inkqubo yokutshintshwa kwasekhaya.

Imarike yoMthengi wetheminali

Iimveliso ze-elektroniki zabathengi ezinomlinganiselo ophezulu weendleko zokugcina, ezifana nee-smartphones eziphakathi ukuya ekupheleni, sele zijongene noxinzelelo lweendleko. Abavelisi beempawu basengxakini: ukufunxa iindleko ngaphakathi kuya kucudisa inzuzo, ngelixa ukudlulisela iindleko kubathengi kunokuchaphazela umthamo wentengiso.

iFuture Trend Outlook

Ngokubanzi, eli xesha lokuchuma okuphezulu kwimarike yokugcina kungenzeka ukuba liqhubeke ixesha elithile.

Price Trend

Uqikelelo lweziko lubonisa ukuba ukunyuka kwexabiso le-chip yokugcina kunokuhlala ubuncinane kude kube yi-H1 2026. Ngokukodwa, amaxabiso e-HBM kunye ne-DDR5 kulindeleke ukuba abone ukunyuka okubukhali kwiikota ezimbalwa ezizayo.

Ukuphindaphinda kweTekhnoloji

Itekhnoloji yogcino iyakhawuleza. Ii-OEMs ziya kuqhubeka zifudukela kwiinkqubo eziphezulu kakhulu (ezifana ne-1β/1γ nodes), ngelixa iteknoloji yesizukulwana esilandelayo njenge-HBM4 ibekwe kwi-R & D kunye ne-ajenda yokuvelisa ubuninzi ukuphishekela ukusebenza okuphezulu kunye neenzuzo.

Inkqubo yendawo

Iqhutywa zizo zombini i-AI kunye nezicwangciso zelizwe, amashishini ogcino lwaseTshayina aya kuqhubeka ukutyala imali kwi-R&D yetekhnoloji kunye nomthamo wemveliso. Kulindeleke ukuba ngo-2027, amashishini ogcino lwaseTshayina afezekise impumelelo ebalulekileyo kwisabelo semarike yehlabathi kwaye adlale indima ebaluleke ngakumbi kumxokelelwane wezorhwebo wehlabathi.