Muva nje, imakethe yama-chip okugcina impahla ibilokhu ibhekene nokwenyuka okukhulu kwentengo, okuqhutshwa ngokubambisana yisidingo esikhulu samandla okubala obuhlakani bokwenziwa (AI) kanye nokulungiswa kwesakhiwo kuchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa.

Amandla Abalulekile Okwenyuka Kwentengo Yesitoreji Samanje Se-Chip

Izinguquko ezibalulekile: Ngokuphathelene nokwenyuka kwentengo, amanani e-DDR5 akhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-100% ngenyanga eyodwa; ukwenyuka kwentengo yenkontileka ye-Q4 DRAM okulindelwe kukhuphuke kwaya ku-18%-23%, kanti amanani aqondile amanye amamodeli akhuphuke ngo-25% ngesonto. Ngamaqhinga omkhiqizi, izinkampani ezihamba phambili njenge-Samsung ne-SK Hynix zimise izingcaphuno zenkontileka, zibeka phambili amandla okukhiqiza e-HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) kanye ne-DDR5 futhi zivula kuphela ukunikezwa kumakhasimende amakhulu abambisene isikhathi eside. Umshayeli oyinhloko ukwanda kwesidingo samaseva e-AI, asebenzisa inani elikhulu lamandla e-wafer, njengoba abahlinzeki bezinsizakalo zamafu bevala amandla eminyakeni embalwa ezayo kusengaphambili ukwakha ingqalasizinda yamandla ekhompyutha.

Umthelela Wechungechunge Lwezimboni:

Izinkampani ezinkulu zamazwe ngamazwe: i-Samsung ne-SK Hynix zibone ukukhula okukhulu kwemali engenayo kanye nenzuzo yokusebenza.

Abakhiqizi basekhaya: Izinkampani ezifana neJiangbolong kanye neBiwin Storage zithole ukuthuthuka okukhulu kokusebenza, okusheshisa ukushintshwa kobuchwepheshe.

Imakethe yesiteshi: Amanye amabhrendi e-electronics abathengi abhekene nengcindezi yamanani ngenxa yokwenyuka kwezindleko zokugcina. 

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Izizathu Eziyinhloko Zokwenyuka Kwentengo

Ukwenyuka okukhulu kwamanani e-chip yokugcina kungaqondwa njengendaba evamile "yokungalingani kokuhlinzekwa kwezidingo", kodwa kusekelwa ukuguqulwa okukhulu kwezimboni.

Uhlangothi Lokunikezela: Ukuncishiswa Kwesakhiwo kanye Nokushintsha Kwamasu

Abakhiqizi bemishini yokuqala ye-storage chip (OEMs) njenge-Samsung, SK Hynix, kanye ne-Micron bashintsha kakhulu. Bashintsha inani elikhulu lamandla e-wafer kusuka ku-DRAM yendabuko kanye ne-NAND kuya ku-HBM ephezulu kanye ne-DDR5 ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nesidingo seseva ye-AI. Le ndlela "yokuphuca uPeter ukuthi akhokhele uPaul" iholele ngqo ekwehleni okukhulu kwamandla e-storage chips ezisetshenziswayo, okubangele ukuntuleka kwezindawo eziqondile.

Uhlangothi Lwesidingo: Igagasi le-AI Libangela Isidingo Esikhulu

Isidingo esikhulu yisona sizathu esiyinhloko. Ama-giants esevisi yamafu omhlaba wonke (isib. i-Google, i-Amazon, i-Meta, i-Microsoft) atshala imali eningi engqalasizinda ye-AI. Amaseva e-AI anezidingo eziphakeme kakhulu ze-bandwidth yokugcina kanye nomthamo, okungagcini nje ngokukhuphula amanani e-HBM kanye ne-DDR5 kodwa futhi kuthatha umthamo womkhakha wonke ngenxa yomthamo wawo omkhulu wokuthenga. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukwanda kwezicelo ze-AI kusukela ekuqeqeshweni kuya ekucabangeni kuzokwandisa isidingo se-DRAM.

Ukuziphatha Kwemakethe: Ukuthenga Ngokwesaba Kukhulisa Ukuguquguquka Kwezinto

Bebhekene nokulindela "ukuntuleka kokunikezwa," abakhiqizi bamaseva abasezansi kanye nabakhiqizi bemikhiqizo kagesi sebethathe ukuthenga ngokwesaba. Esikhundleni sokuthenga njalo ngekota, bafuna izivumelwano zokunikezwa zesikhathi eside zeminyaka engu-2-3, okwandisa kakhulu ukungqubuzana kwesidingo sokunikezwa kwesikhashana futhi kwenze ukuguquguquka kwentengo kube kubi kakhulu.

Umthelela Ochungechungeni Lwezimboni

Lokhu kukhuphuka kwentengo kushintsha isakhiwo kanye nemvelo yochungechunge lonke lwemboni yokugcina izinto.

Izindawo Zokugcina Izinto Ezinkulu Zomhlaba Wonke

Njengabaholi emakethe yabathengisi, izinkampani ezifana ne-Samsung kanye ne-SK Hynix zifinyelele ukukhula okuphezulu kwemali engenayo kanye nenzuzo. Zisebenzisa izinzuzo zobuchwepheshe, zinamandla amakhulu entengo yemikhiqizo esezingeni eliphezulu njenge-HBM.

Amabhizinisi Okugcina Izinto Zasekhaya

Lo mjikelezo unikeza ithuba elibalulekile lomlando kubakhiqizi basekhaya. Ngokusebenzisa ubuchwepheshe obuthuthukisiwe kanye namasu emakethe aguquguqukayo, bafinyelele intuthuko eshesha kakhulu.

Ukushintshaniswa Okusheshisiwe

Phakathi kwezintambo zokuphakelwa kwamazwe ngamazwe eziqinile, ama-PCIe SSD asekhaya kanye neminye imikhiqizo kuhlanganiswa ngokushesha nezintambo zokuphakelwa kwamabhizinisi asekhaya aholayo, okusheshisa kakhulu inqubo yokushintshaniswa kwasekhaya.

Imakethe Yabathengi Besiphetho

Imikhiqizo ye-elekthronikhi yabathengi enenani elikhulu lezindleko zokugcina, njengezingcingo eziphathwayo eziphakathi nendawo kuya kweziphansi, isivele ibhekene nezingcindezi zezindleko. Abakhiqizi bemikhiqizo basenkingeni: ukwamukela izindleko ngaphakathi kuzonciphisa inzuzo, kuyilapho ukudlulisela izindleko kubathengi kungathinta ivolumu yokuthengisa.

Umbono Wendlela Yesikhathi Esizayo

Sekukonke, lesi sikhathi sokuchuma okukhulu emakethe yokugcina izinto kungenzeka siqhubeke isikhathi esithile.

Intengo Ehambayo

Izibikezelo zezikhungo zibonisa ukuthi ukunyuka kwentengo ye-chip yokugcina kungase kuhlale okungenani kuze kube yi-H1 2026. Ikakhulukazi, amanani e-HBM kanye ne-DDR5 kulindeleke ukuthi abone ukwanda okukhulu kumakota ambalwa ezayo.

Ukuphindaphinda Kobuchwepheshe

Ukuphindaphinda kobuchwepheshe bokugcina izinto kuyanda. Ama-OEM azoqhubeka nokuthuthela ezinqubweni ezithuthukisiwe kakhulu (njenge-1β/1γ nodes), kuyilapho ubuchwepheshe besizukulwane esilandelayo njenge-HBM4 bubekwe ohlelweni lwe-R&D kanye nokukhiqiza ngobuningi ukuze kulandelwe ukusebenza okuphezulu kanye nenzuzo.

Inqubo Yokwenza Indawo

Eqhutshwa yi-AI kanye namasu kazwelonke, amabhizinisi okugcina impahla aseShayina azoqhubeka nokutshala imali ku-R&D yezobuchwepheshe kanye nomthamo wokukhiqiza. Kulindeleke ukuthi ngo-2027, amabhizinisi okugcina impahla aseShayina azofinyelela intuthuko enkulu esabelweni semakethe yomhlaba wonke futhi adlale indima ebaluleke kakhulu ochungechungeni lwezimboni zomhlaba wonke.