E ai ki te kamupene tātari IDC, tērā pea ka huri te korenga o ngā maramara hei nui rawa atu i te tau 2023. Ehara pea tēnā i te otinga mō te hunga e hiahia ana ki te silicon whakairoiro hou i ēnei rā, engari, āe, he iti noa iho te tumanako kāore tēnei e mau tonu, tika?
E kī ana te pūrongo a te IDC (mā The Register) e matapaetia ana ka kite te umanga haurua-waea i te "whakatikatika me te taurite i waenganui o te tau 2022, me te kaha pea ka nui rawa te kaha i te tau 2023 i te mea ka tīmata te whakawhānui i te kaha nui ake i te mutunga o te tau 2022."
E kiia ana kua eke te kaha hanga ki te taumata teitei mō te tau 2021, ko te tikanga kua kapi katoa ngā wheketere mō te toenga o te tau. Ahakoa e ai ki ngā pūrongo, he pai ake te āhua mō ngā kamupene kore-whakaputa (arā, AMD, Nvidia) ki te tiki i ngā maramara e hiahiatia ana e rātou.
Ahakoa kei te haere mai me te whakatūpato mō te korenga o ngā rauemi me te puhoi o te hanga o muri (me mahi ngā tukanga katoa ki te waferi murikua oti te whakaputa).
I te mea kei te piki haere te pēhanga o ngā hokohoko hararei e tata ana ki te mutunga o te tau, me te iti o ngā taonga i mua i te wā pukumahi, ki taku whakaaro kāore pea tātou, te hunga kiritaki, e rongo i ngā painga o te pikinga ake o ngā taonga—engari, e koa ana ahau kua hē taku whakaaro.
Heoi, he rongo pai tonu tēnā mō te tau e tū mai nei me te tau 2023, ahakoa he rite tonu ki ngā mea kua rongohia e tātou mai i a Intel me TSMC i te tau kua hipa e pā ana ki ngā take tuku.
Mō ngā whakawhānuitanga o te kaha nui kei te haere mai, he maha ngā kaupapa hangahanga kei te mahihia. Kei te whakamahere a Intel, Samsung, me TSMC (hei whakahua noa i ngā mea nui rawa atu) i ngā whare hanga maramara hou, tae atu ki ngā tini whare i te US.
Heoi, ko te nuinga o ēnei mīhini hanga kāore e whakakāhia, e whakaputa maramara rānei tae noa ki muri rawa atu i te tau 2022.
Nō reira, ko te whakapainga pērā i te mea i roto i te pūrongo a te IDC me whakawhirinaki anō hoki ki te haumitanga e haere ana ki te pupuri, te whakapai ake, me te whakawhānui i te kaha o te whare hanga whakarewa o nāianei. I te tīmatanga o ngā pona tukanga hou ki te whakatutuki i te rahinga whakaputa, ka āwhina anō hoki tēnā ki te whakaiti i te raruraru o nāianei.
Heoi, ka tūpato ngā kaihanga kei nui rawa te whakanui i te tuku. Kei te hoko atu rātou i ngā mea katoa ka taea e rātou te hanga i tēnei wā, ā, mā te nui rawa o te tuku ka kaukau pea rātou i ngā maramara toenga, ka heke rānei ngā utu. I pā tēnei ki a Nvidia i tētahi wā, ā, kāore i pai te mutunga.
He āhua uaua rawa atu tēnei: ​​i tētahi taha, he nui te pūmanawa ki te tuku atu i ngā hua ki ngā kiritaki; i tētahi atu taha, he pūmanawa kia waiho noa iho ngā kamupene hanga utu nui kāore e whiwhi moni nui e ai ki tā rātou e taea ai.
I te mea e pā ana tēnei katoa ki ngā kaitākaro, ko ngā kāri whakairoiro te mea e tino pāngia ana e te korenga o te silicon me te nui o te tono nui atu i tētahi atu wāhanga. Kua tino heke ngā utu GPU mai i ngā taumata teitei o te tīmatanga o te tau, ahakoa e kī ana ngā pūrongo hou kāore anō kia puta i te ngahere.
Nō reira, kāore au e tumanako ka puta he panonitanga nui ki te tuku kāri whakairoiro i te tau 2021, ahakoa he pono te pūrongo a te IDC. Heoi, me kī atu au, nā te mea e whakaae ana te kaitātari me te Tumu Whakahaere Matua ka hoki anō te tau 2023 ki te āhua noa, kei te tino tumanako ahau mō taua putanga.
Mā te pera pea ka tūpono tātou ki te tiki i tētahi kāri whakairoiro Nvidia RTX 4000-series, AMD RX 7000-series rānei i te iti rawa i te MSRP—ahakoa ko te tikanga o tēnā me waiho tēnei whakatupuranga whakamataku hei tangata pōuri.