Hiki i ka nele o nā ʻāpana liʻiliʻi ke lilo i ka lako nui o nā ʻāpana liʻiliʻi ma ka makahiki 2023, e like me ka ʻoihana loiloi IDC. ʻAʻole paha ia he hopena hoʻoponopono no ka poʻe makemake nui i ka silicon kiʻi hou i kēia lā, akā, ʻeā, ma ka liʻiliʻi loa hāʻawi ia i kahi manaʻolana ʻaʻole e mau loa kēia, ʻeā?
Ua ʻōlelo ka hōʻike a ka IDC (ma o The Register) e manaʻo ana ia e ʻike ka ʻoihana semiconductor i ka "normalization a me ke kaulike ma waena o 2022, me ka hiki ke overcapacity i ka makahiki 2023 i ka wā e hoʻomaka ai ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka mana nui aʻe e hele mai ma ka pūnaewele i ka hopena o 2022."
Ua ʻōlelo ʻia hoʻi ua hoʻopau ʻia ka mana hana no 2021, ʻo ia hoʻi ua hoʻopaʻa ʻia nā hale hana āpau no ke koena o ka makahiki. ʻOiai ua ʻike ʻia he ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi no nā ʻoihana fabless (ʻo ia hoʻi ʻo AMD, Nvidia) e loaʻa nā ʻāpana a lākou e pono ai.
ʻOiai me ia mea e hele mai ana ka ʻōlelo aʻo no ka nele o nā mea a me ka lohi ʻana o ka hana ʻana ma hope (nā kaʻina hana āpau e pono ai ke hana ʻia i ka waferma hopeua hana ʻia).
Me ke kaomi hou o ka nui o nā kūʻai aku i nā lā hoʻomaha ma ka hopena o ka makahiki, a me ka lako haʻahaʻa e alakaʻi ana i ka wā hana nui, ke kuhi nei au ʻaʻole paha mākou, ma ke ʻano he mea kūʻai aku, e ʻike i nā pono o ka lako i hoʻomaikaʻi iki ʻia—eia naʻe, hauʻoli wau i ka hōʻoia ʻia ua hewa.
Akā he nūhou maikaʻi nō naʻe kēlā e pili ana i ka makahiki aʻe a hiki i ka makahiki 2023, ʻoiai ua kūlike ia me nā mea a mākou i lohe ai mai Intel lāua ʻo TSMC i ka makahiki i hala e pili ana i nā pilikia lako.
No nā hoʻonui nui ʻana o ka mana e hana ʻia nei, nui nā papahana hale hana hana e hana ʻia nei. Ke hoʻolālā nei ʻo Intel, Samsung, a me TSMC (e inoa wale i ka mea nui loa) i nā hale hana hana chip hou loa, me nā puʻu ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa.
Eia nō naʻe, ʻaʻole e hoʻā ʻia ka hapa nui o kēia mau mea hana a hoʻopuka i nā ʻāpana a hiki i ka wā ma hope loa o 2022.
No laila, pono e hilinaʻi ʻia kahi hoʻomaikaʻi e like me ka mea i hōʻike ʻia e ka hōʻike IDC ma ka hoʻopukapuka kālā e komo ana i ka mālama ʻana, hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana, a me ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka hiki ke hana ʻia nā hale hana hao. I ka hoʻomaka ʻana o nā kikowaena hana hou e hōʻea i ka hana nui, e kōkua nō hoʻi kēlā i ka hoʻomaʻamaʻa ʻana i ke kūpikipikiʻi o kēia manawa.
E makaʻala nā mea hana i ka hele nui ʻana i ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka lako. Ke kūʻai aku nei lākou i nā mea āpau a lākou e hiki ai ke kūkulu i kēia manawa a ʻo ka hāʻawi nui ʻana ma ke alo o ka lako e waiho iā lākou e ʻauʻau ana i nā ʻāpana i koe a i ʻole e hoʻohaʻahaʻa i nā kumukūʻai. Ua hana maoli kēlā iā Nvidia i hoʻokahi manawa, a ʻaʻole i pau maikaʻi.
He ʻano paʻa loa ia: ma kekahi ʻaoʻao, ka nui o ka hiki ke lawelawe i nā huahana hou aku i nā mea kūʻai aku; ma kekahi ʻaoʻao, ka hiki ke waiho ʻia me nā hale hana pipiʻi ʻaʻole e loaʻa ka waiwai nui e like me ka hiki.
ʻOiai e pili ana kēia mau mea āpau i nā mea pāʻani, ʻo nā kāleka kiʻi ka mea i ʻike ʻia he nui loa ka hopena o ka nele o ka silicon a me ke koi nui ma mua o nā ʻāpana ʻē aʻe. Ua ʻike ʻia ua hāʻule nui nā kumukūʻai GPU mai nā kiʻekiʻe o ka makahiki mua, ʻoiai ke hōʻike nei nā hōʻike hou loa ʻaʻole mākou i waho o ka nahele.
No laila, ʻaʻole au e manaʻo i nā loli nui i ka lako kāleka kiʻi i ka makahiki 2021, ʻoiai inā kani ʻoiaʻiʻo ka hōʻike a IDC. Eia naʻe, e ʻōlelo wau, ʻoiai ua ʻae like ka mea loiloi a me ka CEO e hoʻi hou ka makahiki 2023 i ka maʻamau, ke lana mālie nei koʻu manaʻo no kēlā hopena.
Ma ka liʻiliʻi ma ia ala, loaʻa paha iā mākou kahi manawa kūpono e kiʻi ai i kahi kāleka kiʻi Nvidia RTX 4000-series a i ʻole AMD RX 7000-series ma MSRP—ʻoiai inā ʻo ia ke ʻano o ka waiho ʻana i kēia hanauna kupaianaha e like me kahi ʻano squib damp.