Ukuntuleka kwama-chip kungase kube ukuphakelwa ngokweqile kwama-chip ngo-2023, ngokusho kwenkampani yokuhlaziya i-IDC. Mhlawumbe lokho akusona isisombululo sokulungisa konke kulabo abafisa i-silicon entsha yehluzo namuhla, kodwa, okungenani, kunikeza ithemba lokuthi lokhu ngeke kuhlale phakade, akunjalo?
Umbiko we-IDC (nge-The Register) uphawula ukuthi ulindele ukuthi imboni ye-semiconductor ibone "ukulungiswa kanye nokulinganisela maphakathi no-2022, kanye nethuba lokusebenzisa amandla amaningi ngo-2023 njengoba ukwanda kwamandla amakhulu kuqala ukutholakala ngasekupheleni kuka-2022."
Kuthiwa amandla okukhiqiza asevele engeziwe ngo-2021, okusho ukuthi yonke imikhiqizo ibhukelwe unyaka wonke. Nakuba kubikwa ukuthi kubukeka kungcono kancane ezinkampanini ezingenazo izimpahla (okungukuthi i-AMD, i-Nvidia) ukuthola ama-chip azidingayo.
Nakuba lokho kuza nesixwayiso sokuntuleka kwezinto ezibonakalayo kanye nokwehla kokukhiqiza okungemuva (zonke izinqubo okudingeka zenziwe ku-waferngemvasekukhiqizwe).
Njengoba kunengcindezi eyengeziwe yokuthenga okuningi ngamaholide ngasekupheleni konyaka, kanye nokunikezwa okuncane okuholela esikhathini esimatasa, ngingaqagela ukuthi thina, njengamakhasimende, cishe ngeke sizizwe izinzuzo zokunikezwa okuthuthukisiwe kancane—ngiyajabula ukuthi ngifakazelwe ukuthi nginephutha, nokho.
Kodwa lokho kuseyizindaba ezinhle mayelana nonyaka ozayo kanye no-2023, yize kuhambisana kakhulu nalokho esikuzwile ku-Intel kanye ne-TSMC ngonyaka odlule maqondana nezinkinga zokuphakelwa.
Ngokuphathelene nokwandiswa kwamandla amakhulu okuzayo, kunezinhlelo eziningi zezimboni zokukhiqiza ezisalungiswa. I-Intel, i-Samsung, kanye ne-TSMC (ukubala kuphela ezinkulu kunazo zonke) zonke zihlela izikhungo ezintsha zokwenza ama-chip, okuhlanganisa nezindawo eziningi e-US.
Kodwa-ke, iningi lalezi zinto ezinhle ngeke lisebenze futhi likhiphe ama-chips kuze kube sekwephuzile kakhulu kuno-2022.
Ngakho-ke intuthuko efana naleyo umbiko we-IDC kumele futhi incike ekutshalweni kwezimali okuya ekugcinweni, ekuthuthukisweni, nasekukhuliseni amandla akhona okwakha isisekelo. Njengoba ama-node amasha enqubo eqala ukufinyelela ekukhiqizweni komthamo lokho nakho kuzosiza ekunciphiseni ukuminyana kwamanje.
Abakhiqizi bazoqaphela ukuthi abaweqisi ekukhuliseni ukunikezwa, noma kunjalo. Bathengisa konke abangakwakha njengamanje futhi ukuletha ngokweqile ekuhlinzekeni kungabashiya bedla ama-chips asele noma behlise amanani. Lokho kwenzeka ngempela kuNvidia, futhi akuphelanga kahle.
Kunzima kancane: ngakolunye uhlangothi, amathuba amakhulu okunikeza imikhiqizo eminingi kumakhasimende amaningi; ngakolunye uhlangothi, amathuba okushiywa nezinto ezibizayo ezingenzi nzuzo eningi ngangokunokwenzeka.
Njengoba konke lokhu kuhlobene nabadlali begeyimu, amakhadi ehluzo abonakala ethinteke kakhulu ukushoda kwe-silicon kanye nesidingo esikhulu kunanoma iyiphi enye ingxenye. Amanani e-GPU abonakale ehla kakhulu kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka, yize imibiko yakamuva isikisela ukuthi asikaphumi ogibeni okwamanje.
Ngakho-ke angilindele izinguquko ezinkulu ekuhlinzekweni kwamakhadi ehluzo ngo-2021, noma ngabe umbiko we-IDC uzwakala uyiqiniso. Nokho, ngizothi njengoba bobabili umhlaziyi kanye ne-CEO bebonakala bevumelana ngokuthi u-2023 uzobuyela esimweni esijwayelekile, nginethemba elincane ngalowo mphumela.
Okungenani ngaleyo ndlela singase sibe nethuba lokuthola okungenani ikhadi lehluzo le-Nvidia RTX 4000-series noma le-AMD RX 7000-series ku-MSRP—noma lokho kusho ukushiya lesi sizukulwane esingaba sihle njenge-squib encane.