Ukushoda kwama-chip kungase kuphenduke ukugcwala ngokweqile kwama-chip ngo-2023, ngokusho kwenkampani yomhlaziyi i-IDC.Lokho mhlawumbe akusona isixazululo sazo zonke zalabo abafuna ukuthola i-silicon entsha yezithombe namuhla, kodwa, hey, okungenani kunikeza ithemba lokuthi lokhu ngeke kuhlale unomphela, akunjalo?
Umbiko we-IDC (nge-Register) uphawula ukuthi ilindele ukuthi imboni ye-semiconductor ibone "ukwenziwa ngendlela evamile kanye nokulinganisela maphakathi no-2022, okungenzeka kube namandla ngokweqile ngo-2023 njengoba ukunwetshwa kwesilinganiso esikhulu kuqala ukutholakala ku-inthanethi ngasekupheleni kuka-2022."
Amandla okukhiqiza kuthiwa nawo asevele engeziwe ngo-2021, okusho ukuthi yonke indwangu ibhukhelwe isikhathi esisele sonyaka.Yize kubikwa ukuthi kubukeka kungconywana ezinkampanini ezingenanganekwane (okungukuthi, i-AMD, i-Nvidia) ukuze zibambe ama-chips eziwadingayo.
Nakuba lokho kufika isixwayiso sokushoda kwezinto ezibonakalayo kanye nokwehla kokukhiqizwa kwe-back-end (zonke izinqubo okudingeka zenziwe ku-waferngemvaselukhiqiziwe).
Ngengcindezi eyengeziwe yebonanza yokuthenga ngamaholide ngasekupheleni konyaka, kanye nokutholakala okuncane okuholela esikhathini esimatasa, ngingaqagela ukuthi thina, njengamakhasimende, mancane amathuba okuba sizwe izinzuzo zokuhlinzekwa okuthuthukisiwe ngandlela thize— Ngiyajabula ukuthi kutholakale ukuthi ngiphutha, nokho.
Kepha lokho kuseyizindaba ezinhle mayelana nonyaka ozayo nango-2023, nakuba kuhambisana kakhulu nalokho esikuzwe ku-Intel ne-TSMC onyakeni odlule maqondana nezindaba zokuhlinzeka.
Ngokuqondene nokuthi yikuphi ukwanda kwamandla amakhulu okusendleleni, kunenqwaba yemiklamo yezitshalo zokwenziwa emisebenzini.I-Intel, i-Samsung, ne-TSMC (uma sibala enkulu kunazo zonke) zonke zihlela izindawo ezintsha zokwenza ama-chipmaking, okuhlanganisa nezinqwaba e-US.
Kodwa-ke, iningi lalezi zindwangu ngeke zifakwe amandla futhi zikhiphe ama-chips kuze kube kamuva kakhulu kuno-2022.
Ngakho-ke ukuthuthukiswa okufana nalokhu umbiko we-IDC kumele nakho kuncike ekutshalweni kwezimali okuzogcina, kuthuthukiswe, futhi kwandise umthamo wesisekelo esikhona.Njengoba ama-process node amasha eqala ukufinyelela ekukhiqizweni kwevolumu lokho nakho kuzosiza ekudambiseni ukuminyana kwamanje.
Abakhiqizi bazoqaphela ukuthi badlulele ekwengezeni ukuhlinzeka, nokho.Bathengisa yonke into abangayakha njengamanje futhi ukudiliva ngokweqile ngaphambili kungabashiya bebhukuda kuma-chips asele noma behlise izintengo.Lokho kwenzeka ngempela kuNvidia kanye, futhi akuzange kuphele kahle.
Kuyintambo encane: ngakolunye uhlangothi, amandla amakhulu ekunikezeni imikhiqizo eminingi kumakhasimende amaningi;ngakolunye, amandla okushiywa nezindwangu ezibizayo angenzi inzuzo eningi ngendlela ebengaba ngayo.
Njengoba konke lokhu kuhlotshaniswa nabadlali bamageyimu, amakhadi ezithombe abonakala ethinteka kakhulu ukushoda kwe-silicon kanye nesidingo esikhulu ngaphezu kwanoma iyiphi enye ingxenye.Izintengo ze-GPU zibonakale zehla kakhulu kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka, nakuba imibiko yakamuva iphakamisa ukuthi asikakaphumi ehlathini.
Ngakho-ke bengingeke ngilindele amashifu amakhulu ekunikeni amakhadi ezithombe ngo-2021, noma umbiko we-IDC uyiqiniso.Ngizothi, nokho, njengoba bobabili umhlaziyi kanye ne-CEO bebonakala bevumelana ukuthi u-2023 uzobuyela kwesijwayelekile, nginethemba buthule ngalowo mphumela.
Okungenani ngaleyo ndlela singase sibe sethubeni lokucosha okungenani ikhadi lehluzo le-Nvidia RTX 4000 noma i-AMD RX 7000-series ku-MSRP-ngisho noma lokho kusho ukushiya lesi sizukulwane esingahle sibe yinto encane njenge-squib emanzi.