Ukunqongophala kweetships kusenokujika kube kukunikezelwa kweetships ngokugqithisileyo ngo-2023, ngokutsho kwenkampani yohlalutyo i-IDC. Mhlawumbi eso asisosisombululo sokulungisa konke kwabo bafuna i-silicon entsha yemizobo namhlanje, kodwa, ubuncinane, kunika ithemba lokuba oku akuyi kuhlala ngonaphakade, akunjalo?
Ingxelo ye-IDC (nge-The Register) iphawula ukuba ilindele ukuba ishishini le-semiconductor libone "ukulungiswa kunye nokulinganisela phakathi kowama-2022, kunye nethuba lokuthwala amandla amaninzi ngo-2023 njengoko ukwandiswa kwamandla amakhulu kuqala ukufika kwi-intanethi ngasekupheleni kowama-2022."
Kuthiwa amandla okuvelisa sele efikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu ngo-2021, nto leyo ethetha ukuba yonke into icwangcisiwe unyaka wonke. Nangona kuthiwa kubonakala kungcono kancinci kwiinkampani ezingenazo ii-fables (umz. i-AMD, iNvidia) ukufumana ii-chips abazifunayo.
Nangona oko kuza nesilumkiso sokunqongophala kwezinto kunye nokucotha kokwenziwa kwezinto ezingasemva (zonke iinkqubo ekufuneka zenziwe kwi-waferemvaivelisiwe).
Ngenxa yoxinzelelo olongezelelekileyo lwe-bonanza yokuthenga ngeeholide ekupheleni konyaka, kunye nokungabikho kombane okukhokelela kwixesha elixakekileyo, ndicinga ukuba thina, njengabathengi, akunakwenzeka ukuba sizive iingenelo zokubonelela ngombane okuphucukileyo—nangona kunjalo, ndiyavuya ukuba ndibonakalisiwe ndiphosakele.
Kodwa ezo ziseziindaba ezimnandi malunga nonyaka ozayo kunye nowama-2023, nangona zihambelana kakhulu noko sikuvileyo kwi-Intel kunye ne-TSMC kunyaka ophelileyo malunga nemiba yokubonelela ngeenkonzo.
Ngokuphathelele ukwanda okukhulu kwamandla okuzayo, kukho iiprojekthi ezininzi zezityalo zokwenza izinto ezisalungiswayo. I-Intel, i-Samsung, kunye ne-TSMC (ukubala ezona zinkulu kuphela) zonke ziceba izakhiwo ezintsha zokwenza iitships, kuquka nee-heaps e-US.
Nangona kunjalo, uninzi lwezi zinto zintle aziyi kusetyenziswa kwaye aziyi kuphuma iitships kude kube semva kakhulu kowama-2022.
Ngoko ke uphuculo olufana nolo ingxelo ye-IDC kufuneka luxhomekeke kutyalo-mali oluya ekugcineni, ukuphucula, kunye nokwandisa amandla akhoyo okwakha isiseko. Njengoko iindawo ezintsha zenkqubo ziqala ukufikelela kwimveliso yomthamo oko kuya kunceda ekunciphiseni ukuxinana kwangoku.
Nangona kunjalo, abavelisi baya kulumka ukuba bangagqithisi xa bethengisa izinto ezininzi. Bathengisa yonke into abanokuyikha ngoku kwaye ukuhambisa izinto ezininzi kakhulu kuluhlu lwezinto ezithengiswayo kunokubashiya besitya iitships eziseleyo okanye behlise amaxabiso. Oko kwenzeka kwiNvidia kanye, kwaye akuzange kuphele kakuhle.
Kunzima kakhulu: kwelinye icala, kukho amandla amakhulu okubonelela abathengi abaninzi ngeemveliso ezininzi; kwelinye icala, kukho amathuba okushiywa nezinto ezibizayo ezingenzi nzuzo ingako.
Njengoko konke oku kunxulumene nabadlali bemidlalo, ngamakhadi emizobo abonakala echaphazeleka kakhulu kukunqongophala kwe-silicon kunye nemfuno enkulu ngaphezu kwayo nayiphi na enye into. Amaxabiso e-GPU abonakala ehla kakhulu ukusukela ekuqaleni konyaka, nangona iingxelo zamva nje zibonisa ukuba asikaphumi edabini okwangoku.
Ngoko ke andinakulindela utshintsho olukhulu ekunikezelweni kwamakhadi emizobo ngo-2021, nokuba ingxelo ye-IDC ivakala iyinyani. Nangona kunjalo, ndiza kuthi, ekubeni bobabini abahlalutyi kunye ne-CEO bebonakala bevumelana ukuba u-2023 uza kubuyela esiqhelweni, ndinethemba elincinci ngaloo nto.
Ubuncinane ngaloo ndlela sinokuba nethuba lokufumana ubuncinane ikhadi lemizobo leNvidia RTX 4000-series okanye le-AMD RX 7000-series kwi-MSRP—nokuba oko kuthetha ukushiya esi sizukulwana sinokuba nomtsalane njengento emanzi.