Hiki ke hoʻololi ʻia ka hapa o ka chip i kahi chip oversupply e 2023, e like me ka mea loiloi IDC.ʻAʻole paha ia he hoʻoponopono hoʻoponopono āpau no ka poʻe makemake nui no ka silika kiʻi hou i kēia lā, akā, hey, ma ka liʻiliʻi e hāʻawi nei i kahi manaʻolana ʻaʻole e mau loa kēia, ʻeā?
ʻO ka hōʻike IDC (ma The Register) manaʻo e manaʻo ʻia ka ʻoihana semiconductor e ʻike i ka "normalization a me ke kaulike ma ka waena o 2022, me ka hiki ke overcapacity i 2023 e like me ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ka hoʻonui nui ʻana i ka pūnaewele a hiki i ka hopena o 2022."
Ua ʻōlelo ʻia hoʻi ua hoʻonui ʻia ka mana hana no 2021, ʻo ia hoʻi ua hoʻopaʻa ʻia kēlā me kēia mea hana no ke koena o ka makahiki.ʻOiai ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka maikaʻi o nā ʻoihana fabless (ʻo ia hoʻi, AMD, Nvidia) e paʻa i nā chips e pono ai lākou.
ʻOiai me ka hiki ʻana mai o ka ʻōlelo aʻo no ka hemahema o ka waiwai a me ka lohi ʻana i ka hana hope-hope (nā kaʻina hana āpau e pono e hana ʻia i ka wafermahopeua hana ʻia).
Me ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o ka bonanza kūʻai hoʻomaha a hiki i ka hopena o ka makahiki, a me ka haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa e alakaʻi ana i ka wā paʻahana, manaʻo wau ʻaʻole paha mākou, ma ke ʻano he mea kūʻai aku, ʻaʻole paha e ʻike i nā pōmaikaʻi o ka lako i hoʻomaikaʻi ʻia— Hauʻoli nō naʻe au i ka hōʻoia ʻana i ka hewa.
Akā ʻo ia ka nūhou maikaʻi e pili ana i ka makahiki aʻe a hiki i 2023, ʻoiai ʻo ka hapa nui o ka laina me nā mea a mākou i lohe ai mai Intel a me TSMC i ka makahiki i hala e pili ana i ka hoʻolako ʻana i nā pilikia.
E pili ana i ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o ka mana nui ma ke ala, aia ka nui o nā mea kanu hana i nā hana.Ke hoʻolālā nei ʻo Intel, Samsung, a me TSMC (e inoa wale i ka mea nui loa) i nā hale hana chipmaking holomua hou, me nā puʻu i ka US.
Eia nō naʻe, ʻaʻole e hoʻohana ʻia ka hapa nui o kēia mau mea hana a me ka hoʻoheheʻe ʻana i nā chips a hiki i ka wā ma mua o 2022.
No laila, ʻo ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana e like me ka hōʻike IDC pono e hilinaʻi ʻia i ka hoʻokomo ʻana i ka mālama ʻana, hoʻomaikaʻi, a me ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka hiki ke loaʻa.Ke hoʻomaka nei nā node kaʻina hana hou e hōʻea i ka hana nui e kōkua pū kekahi e hōʻoluʻolu i ka ʻāʻī o kēia manawa.
E makaʻala nā mea hana i ka hele ʻana i luna i ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka lako.Ke kūʻai aku nei lākou i nā mea a pau e hiki ai iā lākou ke kūkulu i kēia manawa a ʻo ka hāʻawi nui ʻana ma mua o ka hoʻolako ʻana hiki ke waiho iā lākou e ʻauʻau i nā kīʻaha koena a i ʻole e hāʻule i nā kumukūʻai.Ua hana maoli kēlā iā Nvidia i hoʻokahi manawa, ʻaʻole i pau maikaʻi.
He kaula liʻiliʻi ia: ma kekahi ʻaoʻao, ʻo ka mana nui i ka lawelawe ʻana i nā huahana hou aku i nā mea kūʻai aku;ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, hiki ke waiho ʻia me nā fabs pipiʻi ʻaʻole e loaʻa i ka nui o ka waiwai e like me ka hiki.
E like me ka hoʻopili ʻana o kēia mau mea āpau i nā mea pāʻani, ʻo ia nā kāleka kiʻi i ʻike nui ʻia e nā hemahema silika a me nā koi nui ma mua o nā mea ʻē aʻe.Ua ʻike ʻia ka hāʻule nui ʻana o nā kumukūʻai GPU mai ke kiʻekiʻe o ka makahiki mua, ʻoiai ke hōʻike nei nā hōʻike hou loa ʻaʻole mākou i waho o ka ululāʻau.
No laila ʻaʻole wau e manaʻo i nā loli nui i ka hāʻawi ʻana i nā kāleka kiʻi ma 2021, ʻoiai inā kani maoli ka hōʻike IDC.E ʻōlelo wau, ʻoiai, ʻoiai ʻo ka mea loiloi a me ka Luna Nui e ʻae nei e hoʻi hou ʻo 2023 i ka maʻamau, ke lana mālie nei au no kēlā hopena.
Ma ka liʻiliʻi ma ia ala hiki iā mākou ke kū i kahi manawa e kiʻi ai i ka liʻiliʻi o Nvidia RTX 4000-series a i ʻole AMD RX 7000-series kiʻi kiʻi kāleka ma MSRP-ʻoiai inā ʻo ia ke ʻano o ka haʻalele ʻana i kēia hanauna weliweli e like me kahi squib wai.